Population Projections By Country
Direct access to database
Data is taken from UN Population Division Database. All data available for downloading. Use “View Mode” field inside the report to select preferable format.
Click the icon to run a report (table) with population projection by country for 2015 – 2100. Select the country, select the variant and get the table with data: population projection, male and female population projection.
Data is taken from UN Population Division Database. All graphs are available for downloading. Use “View Mode” field inside the report to select preferable format.
Click the icon to run a Graph builder with population projection graph. Select few countries, select projection variant and get graph of population for selected country. You also can decrease the period by changing parameters “From Year” and “Till Year”
Click the icon to run a Graph builder with countries comparing population projection graph. Select few countries, select projection variant and get graph of population for selected countries. You also can decrease the period by changing parameters “From Year” and “Till Year”.
Click the icon to run a Graph builder with the graph of top countries by population for any year from now till 2100. Select the year and define how much top countries you would like to see on the graph. You will get the horizontal bar with the top countries population at the target year ordered by population (descending).
One more example:
Who Makes Population Projections
Our database contains population projections for countries and geographical locations delivered by United Nation Population Division. The Division constantly improves methods of population estimation and projection. Results of research projects performed by Population Division are used by United Nation services and by many other international institutions.
Population Projection Method
The Population Division of the United Nations developed the cohort-component method for individual country population projections. Below you can find high-level description of approach which was used by research team when they generated population projection data. This information can help you to understand how projections were made and define its quality.
The cohort-component projection method for individual country projections is an accounting framework based on three demographic components of change: births, deaths and international migration. Each of components should be projected in advance and than aggregated according to specific rules to get the full picture of projected population change.
Population is changed when new people are born (population surplus), when some people die (population decrease), when people leave the country (population decrease) and when people come to the country from abroad (population increase). If you can predict the behavior of each of this factors you, therefore, can predict the total population change.
The amount of births is defined by fertility indicators. The projection of fertility is based on some ideas (converted into models) about how fertility rate and structure will change for different groups of countries.
The amount of deaths is defined by mortality indicators. Basic idea used by UN Population Division is that life expectancy assumed to rise over the projection period for most countries. The exception is made for countries affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic (epidemic dynamics described by special models).
International migration is the component of population change most difficult to project. Migration trends depend on many factors which can be changed dramatically during the shot period because of some crisis caused by politics (war, civil war, revolution, economic crisis), natural disaster or some other factor. This factors can not be predicted by demographic models (and by other models as well) and it influence the quality of population prediction dramatically.
Taking this information into account you should take your own decision about which projection variant is more trusted for you. Detailed description of the method you can find here.
Variants and scenarios
Making population projections UN Population Division investigated few different variants of population components behavior. Here you can find the general definition of these variants:
Medium Variant – corresponds to the median of several thousands projected country trajectories for each component
Other variants are defined by different combination of fertility, mortality and international migration (table taken form here):